Yes, Virginia, even Nobel Prize winners can be wingnuts

Apparently Israeli-American Nobel Prize winner in economics Professor Robert Aumann believes that Israel is doomed.   In Ha'aretz a few days ago:

"Too many Jews don't understand why they are here," said Aumann, who moved from the United States to Israel in the 1950s and helped found the Center for Rationality at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, an interdisciplinary research body that focuses on game theory.

Israeli-American Nobel Prize winner in economics and founder of a "Center for Rationality" Professor Robert Aumann believes it is important to understand metaphysical questions such as "why [we] are here" in order to survive.

Lest you think that Israeli-American Nobel Prize winner in economics Professor Robert Aumann is engaging is referring to some form of strategic consideration,

"If we don't understand why we are here, and that we are not America or just a place in which to live, we will not survive," he said in a speech at the College of Judea and Samaria in Ariel on Sunday. "The desire to live like all the nations will sustain us maybe another 50 years, if we are still here."

And it appears that this consideration meshes with his expertise in game theory to interesting effect:

Aumann, who lost his son Shlomo in the first Lebanon war, accused Israelis of being overly sensitive to casualties of war.

"We are too sensitive to our losses, and also to the losses of the other side," he said. "In the Yom Kippur War, 3,000 soldiers were killed. It sounds terrible, but that's small change."

It does sound terrible, no?  So, is that why Israeli-American Nobel Prize winner in economics Professor Robert Aumann is there?

"Looking at the other side is an important element of game theory," he said. "The Arabs' understanding in the wake of the expulsion was that they had succeeded, and that they have to continue on the same path. The expulsion, therefore, brought about the launching of Qassams on Israel and the abduction of the soldiers. The expulsion transmitted the message that we can be moved even from Tel Aviv, and not just from Gush Katif."

This is the most important thing that the Nobel Prize winner in economics Professor Robert Aumann has contributed in this Ha'aretz article: a very important discovery in game theory about which he must inform the deluded experts in international politics, Israeli and otherwise.  What is this discovery?

That they should look at the other side.

No.  Kidding.

And looking at the other side, well, from the perspective of the great scientist, it yields exactly the image he wanted to see.  Give the man a Nobel Prize!

"Last summer we set back peace and understanding with our neighbors by at least 10 years," said Aumann. "After the expulsion, no words will convince them that we intend to stay here forever."

Peace and understanding meaning, of course, the plopping down of a mass of odious and ignorant suburbanites-from-hell in the middle of mass prison.  Who intend to stay there forever.

But that is game theory.  According to Professor Robert Aumann---who already holds a Nobel Prize.

(And for the record, I do, in fact, think that game theory is worth studying.)

Comments

[Mustafa Hirji]

His argument seems to go between being incoherent and being childishly simple (If we show them their tactic is successful, they'll continue with that tactic).

- Mustafa Hirji

[Craig]

There's a reason why this sort of stuff is popular: a sophisticated veneer to common sense and prejudice.

[Mandos]

Depends. Are you referring to game theory as such?

[Craig]

In its "public choice" incarnation, yes.

[Mandos]

So I do think that these sort of mathematical tomfooleries have some value, in principle, in establishing bounds on large, complex systems.